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Title:	Health and economic burden of obesity in Brazil
Authors:	Rtveladze, Ketevan Marsh, Tim Webber, Laura Kilpi, Fanny Levy, David Conde, Wolney Lisboa McPherson, Klim Brown, Martin
Affilliation:	Micro Health Simulations. London, United Kingdom, EN Micro Health Simulations. London, United Kingdom, EN Micro Health Simulations. London, United Kingdom, EN Micro Health Simulations. London, United Kingdom, EN Georgetown University. Washington, D. C., EUA Universidade de São Paulo. São Paulo, SP, Brasil New College. Oxford, United Kingdom, EN Micro Health Simulations. London, United Kingdom, EN
Abstract:	Introduction Higher and lower-middle income countries are increasingly affected by obesity. Obesity-related diseases are placing a substantial health and economic burden on Brazil. Our aim is to measure the future consequences of these trends on the associated disease burden and health care costs. Method A previously developed micro-simulation model is used to project the extent of obesity, obesity-related diseases and associated healthcare costs to 2050. In total, thirteen diseases were considered: coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, diabetes, osteoarthritis, and eight cancers. We simulated three hypothetical intervention scenarios: no intervention, 1% and 5% reduction in body mass index (BMI). Results In 2010, nearly 57% of the Brazilian male population was overweight or obese (BMI ≥25 kg/m2), but the model projects rates as high as 95% by 2050. A slightly less pessimistic picture is predicted for females, increasing from 43% in 2010 to 52% in 2050. Coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, cancers, osteoarthritis and diabetes prevalence cases are projected to at least double by 2050, reaching nearly 34,000 cases of hypertension by 2050 (per 100,000). 1% and 5% reduction in mean BMI will save over 800 prevalence cases and nearly 3,000 cases of hypertension by 2050 respectively (per 100,000). The health care costs will double from 2010 ($5.8 billion) in 2050 alone ($10.1 billion). Over 40 years costs will reach $330 billion. However, with effective interventions the costs can be reduced to $302 billion by 1% and to $273 billion by 5% reduction in mean BMI across the population. Conclusion Obesity rates are rapidly increasing creating a high burden of disease and associated costs. However, an effective intervention to decrease obesity by just 1% will substantially reduce obesity burden and will have a significant effect on health care expenditure.
Keywords:	Brasil Índios Sul-Americanos Saúde de Populações Indígenas Diabetes Mellitus Hipertensão Mortalidade Obesidade Índice de Massa Corporal Saúde Ocupacional
DeCS:	Brasil Saúde de Populações Indígenas Índios Sul-Americanos Diabetes Mellitus Hipertensão Mortalidade Obesidade Índice de Massa Corporal Saúde do Trabalhador
Issue Date:	2013
Publisher:	PLOS Collections
Citation:	RTVELADZE, Ketevan. et al. Health and Economic Burden of Obesity in Brazil. Plos One, v. 8, n. 7, p. e68785, 2013.
metadata.dc.identifier.doi:	10.1371/journal.pone.0068785
ISSN:	1932-6203
Other Identifiers:	10.1371/journal.pone.0068785 1932-6203
Copyright:	open access
Appears in Collections:	TR - Artigos de Periódicos

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